GoldPrice.

Happy Monday, traders. Hope all had a pleasant weekend.

This weekend marks the start of the central bank calendar for 2019, and we have a smattering (highly technical term) of other economic data interspersed as well. Meanwhile, our favorite macro stories will continue to develop: we’ll see what’s next in US government shutdown negotiations after the president’s ill-received offer of a compromise over the weekend; and British Prime Minister Theresa May is due to submit her government’s “Brexit plan B” later this morning, to be voted on in Parliament on January 29.

To start the week, at time of writing gold spot has recovered to some degree from a hard sell in the European session that broke $1280 support, and is currently pricing back at that same pivot-point ($1280/oz.) Silver is lower as well, with spot offers at $15.25, while palladium is off its highs but still soaring well above $1350/oz.

As a reminder, with today being Martin Luther King Jr Day US equity and bond markets are closed at half-day in observance.

US Data to Watch This Week

Tuesday, January 22 at 10am EST // Existing Home Sales

[consensus expectation: -1.3% // previous: +1.9%]

Following an uptick in November numbers, regional sales data for the following month implies a pull-back is due for December. Worth noting: while not earth-moving, existing home sales data is a component of a component of US GDP each quarter, and even these second-level inputs could become relevant as the partial government shutdown carries on carving basis-points off of first-quarter GDP.

Shutdown Update: Economists expect the U.S. government shutdown will lower quarterly economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for every week or two, explains @shochandra ➡️https://t.co/UMCgfzYqEo pic.twitter.com/EsuVDWAqrn

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 17, 2019

Wednesday, January 23 at 10am EST // Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

[consensus exp.: -2.0 // prev.: -8.0]

I can’t honestly say I remember ever advising a client or colleague that they should be tracking the Richmond Fed’s Mfg. Index before, but with the shutdown-induced dearth of US economic data grinding on, middle-tier reports like this (see last week’s Philly Fed Index) are getting more scrutiny than usual because they’re currently among the few inputs we have to help estimate the health of our economy.

Thursday, January 24 at 8:30am EST // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus exp.: 220k // prev.: 213k]

With last week’s claims number dropping a bit more than expected, we’ll watch to see if the mild uptrend we’ve seen in layoffs begins to break down.

Friday, January 25 at 8:30am EST**// Durable Goods Orders

[“headline” consensus exp.: +1.5% // prev.: +0.8%]

[core consensus exp.: +0.2% // prev.: -0.6%]

Aircraft orders in particular seem to have remained strong into December and should help boost headline Durable Goods Orders data slightly more than in November, while a slowdown in manufacturing growth across the globe and recovering but still suppressed fuel prices will continue to drag on the core number. The report for November has not yet been released in full due to the shutdown, so keep in mind that analysts are flying a little more blind than usual on this one.

Friday, January 25 at 10am EST**// New Home Sales

[Previous month’s report unavailable]

As with Durable Goods orders, we don’t have last month’s data available for study or comparison.

**Data release will be postponed if the partial government shutdown is still in effect come Friday. I’ve chosen to include them here in case a deal is made between now and then.

Global Data to Watch This Week

Tuesday, January 22 at 5am EST // German ZEW Economic Sentiment

[consensus exp.: -18.5 // prev.: -17.5]

Europe needs a win, as economic data from core countries has been shaky of late amid intranational unrest and the Euro’s exchange value shows it. Even a slight recovery in sentiment in the engine house of the EuroZone would be welcomed.

Tuesday, January 22 at 10pm EST // Bank of Japan meeting/rate decision

[no change expected]

No change to monetary policy is expected from the first BOJ meeting of 2019, although many analysts do expect that the members will revised-down both it’s 2018 GDP number and it’s outlook for inflation in 2019.

Thursday, January 24 at 4am EST // Euro Area PMI

[consensus exp.: 51.5 // prev.: 51.1]

There seems to be little expectation of improvement in Euro Area PMI this month, but anything other than a decline would likely encourage those projecting a 2019 growth rate in Europe that, while not impressive, will move faster than that of the US and apply new pressure to the still-elevated US Dollar.

Thursday, January 24 at 7:45am EST // ECB meeting /rate decisions/ press conference

[no change expected, press conference at 8:30am EST]

Like every other major central bank meeting in January, we’re not expecting any change to active monetary policy from Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank. Their statements and press conference require some examination however, as analysts are in disagreement over whether the committee will go as far in recognizing the persistent slowdown as to revise downward their assessment of risks. Others will be hoping for solid confirmation from Mr. Draghi & Co. have no plans (as of yet) to pause their path to rate hikes in the future.

Best of luck to you all in the markets this week. I’ll look forward to having a detailed look at the week’s events.