Ryan Page
Ryan Page has worked for 3 years as a commodities derivative’s trader. He has been building models to analyze global macro data and evaluate risk for more than 5 years.
Ryan has been trading since he was 14 years old. He enjoys playing mid to high stakes poker, with immense experience studying and applying game theory.
Fed Minutes Indicate Patience for the Foreseeable Future
Today’s Federal Reserve minutes were in line with expectations as the Fed continued its stance of patience signaling that they are happy with the current health of the economy. They indicated that the current Fed Funds rate is likely to remain steady for the foreseeable future.
Consumer Spending Falls Putting Pressure on Shaky Markets
Consumer spending fell 0.2% in April, a sign that the overall economy might be slowing. Retail Sales in March were revised up from a 1.6% increase to a 1.7% increase following the decline in February. Retailers could take further hits if President Trump imposes the additional tariffs, many of the new proposed tariffs are focused on consumer products.
Jobless Claims Fall Less Than Expected, Little Change to the Markets
Economists forecasted jobless claims to decrease to 220,000. The figure was a slight miss as jobless claims reported a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ending May 4th. The number of people still receiving benefits after the first week increased 13,000 to 1.68 million for the week ending April 27th.
Markets Are Choppy as the Fed Indicates a Patient Stance
Today’s meeting left rates unchanged which was already assumed by the markets. Following the statement yields were down between 3 and 4 basis points after the Fed reiterated their stance of patience. Trump has been indicating that he wants rates lower to help fuel economic growth. Gold was up $4 following the statement but quickly lost that steam, dropping about $10 after the $4 gain.
Fed Minutes: The Wait and See Approach
The meeting in March kept rates steady and indicated that 2019 was a year for patience. Trump and the financial markets took this as the Fed was ready to start cutting rates again. Since then the Fed has made no indications of rate cuts for 2019, suggesting that rates will be held steady for the rest of 2019.
Nonfarm Payrolls: Shakes off February’s Miss and Beats Expectations
March’s Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations coming in at 196,000 while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent. March’s payroll increased by 4 cents to $27.70 representing a slowdown in wage growth. January and February added 14,000 more jobs than previously reported.
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