GoldPrice.

Good morning, traders; Welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news and headlines likely to have the biggest impact the price of gold this week and beyond, as well as market prices for silver, the US Dollar, and other key correlated assets.

Gold prices are back on the front foot to start this week. A friendly market during the overnight session allowed the yellow metal to float back above the key level of $1800/oz, and the open of US markets this morning is seeing another slide in US Treasury yields which is boosting gold towards $1810.

This week’s economic calendar is sparse, and because we’ve entered the week ahead of an FOMC meeting Fed officials are in the “quiet period.” With the US legislature likely being unable still to pass an infrastructure bill that would reverberate through sovereign debt markets, silence from relevant FOMC officials and, most importantly, Fed Chairman Powell having cemented the certainty of a November taper in most investors’ minds last week, there is a decent upside case for gold this week as there shouldn’t be any sudden announcements (like last Friday) to cut-off momentum for the precious metal.

For now, let’s take a look at the rest of the calendar ahead.

US Economic Data to Watch

Wednesday, October 27 at 830am EDT // Durable Goods Orders (Sep)

[consensus est.: -1.0% MoM // prev.: +1.8%]

Similar to the Philly Fed Mfg. read last week, Durable Goods is a monthly macro number that we haven’t highlighted in recent months as it’s not had much of a direct impact on gold prices or gold’s most relevant correlations, but with a quieter economic calendar for this week and investors looking for reassurance that the Delta variant’s summer surges didn’t set US industry back considerably, we’ll have an eye on Wednesday’s number. Analysts are expecting a reasonable pull-back from a surge in the month prior, and one that is mostly the result of a decline in orders for the very biggest big-ticket items (i.e., aircraft) instead of consumer goods. It’s difficult to predict a direction for gold prices here, if there will be one, so it’s best to just be aware of the print on Wednesday morning.

Thursday, October 28 at 830am EDT // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus est.: +290K // prev.: +290K]

One week ahead of the November FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell’s messaging last Friday probably eliminated any need for the closer attention that weekly jobless claims data has received since the last Jobs Report. Investors might still be rattled or excited but a big miss here (which might boost gold prices) or a big beat (which would likely rally the Dollar, weighing on gold); but Powell’s assurance of a November taper has probably muted that reaction function for the yellow metal going into next week.

Friday, October 29 at 830am EDT // PCE Price Index (Sep)

[(core PCE) consensus est.: +3.7% YoY // prev.: +3.62%]

[(headline) consensus est.: +4.4% YoY // prev.: +4.26%]

Analysts and Economists are looking for the Fed’s in-house measure of US consumer inflation to roughly reflect the still-elevated pressures present in CPI and PPI for the last month, and a modest tick higher year-over-year in both the “core” and overall numbers. Fed Chair Powell (and others) reiterated last week that the central bank acknowledges that high inflation has been stickier than their models predicted; even though they attribute the higher pricing to supply/demand chaos in 2021 rather than aggressive monetary policy, the Fed is poised to start tapering some of that monetary support next week. Because of this, as with the other data points on offer this week, any market reaction is likely to be more muted as investors will be sitting on their hands ahead of next week’s FOMC.

And that’s how the week lays out ahead of us, traders. As always, I wish you all the very best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and I’ll look forward to seeing you all back here on Friday for our market-week wrap up.