GoldPrice.

Good morning, traders; Welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news and headlines likely to have the biggest impact the price of gold this week and beyond, as well as market prices for silver, the US Dollar, and other key correlated assets.

Gold prices have risen impressively following the long holiday weekend in the US, crossing back above $1800/oz during the overnight session and holding on to a majority of those gains (and disproving my concern from that week that resistance might be too strong) as US stock markets open for the week.

We’ve seen a surge in crude oil prices following a breakdown in important OPEC talks, and the drive that has put behind the overall commodities class is likely supporting gold’s rally to some extent; But it’s hard to believe that alone would be enough to break major resistance. Reasons for the yellow metal’s move higher, then, will be our story to watch in a shortened trading week that might ultimately be out slowest of the summer.

For now, let’s take a look at the rest of the calendar ahead.

US Economic Data to Watch

Tuesday, July 6 at 10am EDT // ISM Services Index (June)

[consensus est.: 63.5 // prev.: 64.0]

Virtually all signals have indicated that the US economic recovery is continuing at a healthy pace into the summer. Accordingly, most analysts are looking for activity and growth in the services sector of the economy to remain quite high (above 60.0,) even if there’s some mild slowing from the month prior. This would mirror the reporting we saw from ISM on the US’ manufacturing sector last week. It’s useful, particularly given gold’s relationship to the re-opening/reflation trade, to monitor this progress; But it seems unlikely that June’s PMI data will add immediate pressure (up or downward) to gold prices. Tuesday’s number would probably need to jump sharply towards 70.0 to excite markets’ optimism; To the downside, investors and managers will probably write-off any decline unless it drops below 55.0.

Wednesday, July 7 at 2pm EDT // FOMC Meeting Minutes

There probably will not be much extra information in Wednesday’s Fed minutes regarding the shifts in the economic projections that drew most of the markets’ attention following the FOMC’s June meeting.

What observers will be looking out for, though, is stronger suggestions—maybe even confirmation—that August’s Jackson Hole gathering is being targeted as the time to introduce forward guidance about Fed tapering (which would likely begin in December.) Anything like this—or that the markets interpret as such, at least—is likely to put downward pressure on gold prices midweek as a signal that we’re moving closer to tighter monetary policy.

Thursday, July 8 at 830am EDT // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus est.: +350K // prev.: +364K]

Weekly labor market data appears to have resumed the reassuring trend lower in June, after new unemployment claims seemed to be accelerating a bit in recent weeks. As with PMI data, there’s little reason to expect an acute market reaction to this weekly data, but it’s important to be aware of whether it’s signaling continued progress through the economic recovery and towards Fed action (which appears to be the case, for now.)

And that’s how the week lays out ahead of us, traders. As always, I wish you all the very best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and I’ll look forward to seeing you all back here on Friday for our market-week wrap up.