GoldPrice.

Good Monday morning, traders. It’s time for the first full trading week of 2019! The calendar is a little lite, data-wise, but I suspect we’ll have plenty to trade on in precious metals markets.

To start the week Gold is trading just below $1290/oz: up from Friday’s close last week despite a somewhat steep sell-off from the early-session highs of $1295. Evidence continues to build that we’re putting in solid support at $1285. Meanwhile, silver by-the-ounce remains strong at $15.65.

Macro Stories

The macroeconomic stories worth tracking for precious metal traders this week are largely the same as the have been for the last few months. We’ll be keeping tabs on the continually ridiculous and ridiculously continual shutdown of the US government while also having an eye on the progress (or lack thereof) in US-China trade talks which resume this week. The British government is back to work (or what passes for it) this week as well, so global investors will also be tracking developments in the Brexit saga as we are less than 90 days away from Brexit and a week ahead of Prime Minister May’s promise to have a parliamentary vote scheduled by next week.

US Economic Data to Watch

Monday, January 7 at 10am EST // ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

[consensus expectation: 59.0 // previous: 60.7]

Like the ISM index for the US manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing (or, services) variant has recently been ticking noticeably above the trends of similar indicators and bank analysts’ trackers. And while the manufacturing PMI for December finally showed a “catch-down” to the mean level, I think that’s less likely to happen for the services read—this time around. December is typically strong for the service sector (as indicated by my credit card statement, and probably yours) so I think the slight decline from November is reasonable; it may even print a bit weaker than expected, but not to the degree that we saw the manufacturing index slip. That said, I’d likely be a little more pessimistic about January’s number.

FOMC Speakers

While the data calendar is a little quiet this week, we’ve got a packed social schedule for FOMC members surrounding the release of December’s minutes. On Wednesday we’ll hear from Bostic, Evans, and Rosengren; Thursday is busier, with public comments from Barkin, Chairman Powell, Bullard, Evans and Clarida.

For the first part of this year I expect markets are going to pay a little more attention to comments from committee members as everyone tries to solve for the Fed’s next move, but these guys must be as aware of that as I am and so are probably unlikely to show their cards. Still, I’ll be most interested to hear what Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Clarida have to say.

Wednesday, January 9 at 2pm EST // FOMC Meeting Minutes

On the first read-through of this month’s minutes we’ll look for a little more insight into the FOMC’s thoughts on the recent sell-off and volatility in US equity markets. There may also be a delayed market after-shock to the meeting recap this month, as analysts will take a particularly fine-toothed comb to the texts in search of any indication of the next turn in the Fed’s policy path.

Thursday, January 10 at 8:30am EST // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus exp.: +225k // prev.: +231k]

Friday, January 11 at 8:30am EST // US CPI (Inflation)

[Headline CPI consensus exp.: -0.1% MoM // prev.: +0.02%]

[Core CPI consensus exp.: +0.2% MoM // prev.: +0.21%]

Assuming analysts are at least inside the ballpark on inflation expectations (as they usually are,) year-on-year inflation in the US economy will remain “symmetrically” around the Fed’s 2% inflation mandate despite a drag from falling oil prices in December’s data.

Global Economic Data to Watch

Wednesday, January 9 at 8:30pm EST // China Inflation

[consensus exp.: +2.1% YoY // prev.: +2.2%]

As I mentioned last week, the macro story coming out of the Chinese economy is looking more and more risky and, given its potential impact as the second-largest economy in the world, I think we’ve come to the point where it’s worth it as traders of risk-off assets like gold to at least keep tabs on China’s major data releases. That US-China trade talks are scheduled to resume this week only adds to that view.

Thursday, January 10 at 7:30am EST // ECB Meeting Minutes

Similar to this week’s FOMC minutes (but somewhat less dramatic,) investors will be parsing the ECB’s meeting recap for clues to Draghi and Co’s possible plans for 2019.

Friday, January 11 at 4:30am EST // UK GDP

[consensus exp.: +0.1% MoM // prev.: +0.1%]

Expect Brexit pressure to keep this one flat, and with 0.0% being, you know, a pretty heavy psychological line, a downside surprise could send a lot more positions flying out of Sterling and into safe-haven assets like gold, the Yen and the Dollar. The latest PMI data coming out of Britain has fallen to lows dating back to the Brexit referendum, so there’s not much hope for an upside move this month.

That’s all for me, traders. I wish you the best of luck in the markets, and I’ll see you all back here on Friday for a detailed recap of the week.