Q3 GDP came in at 2.1% vs. 1.9% expected during the second preliminary estimate which was released on Wednesday. Growth was partially due to gains in personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
Key Takeaways
- The US economy grew at a rate of 2.1% in Q3 2019 according to the latest estimate, beating forecasts of 1.9%.
- The PCE price index came in at 1.4% in Q3 compared to 2.4% growth in Q2.
- Core PCE, which measures inflation, came in at 2.1% compared to 1.9% in Q2 and expectations of 1.7%.
The latest GDP report stated that growth in Q3 was due to “upward revisions to private inventory investment, non-residential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE),” which were “partially offset by a downward revision to state and local government spending.”
PCE was up 1.4% in Q3 compared to 2.4% in Q2. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.1% vs. 1.9% last quarter and 1.7% expected, placing inflation near the Fed’s target range of 2%. The Fed introduced multiple rate cuts throughout the year to combat tame inflation and recessionary pressures due to the trade war and the global economic slowdown.
Better than expected #GDP ⬆️2.1% vs estimate of 1.9% for 3Q. Durable orders ⬆️ .6% vs estimate of ⬇️ @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness @dagenmcdowell @spomboy
— Maria Bartiromo (@MariaBartiromo) November 27, 2019
Expert Outlook
“The second release of third quarter national accounts data … mainly reflecting a smaller drag from non-residential structures investment. Gross domestic income rose by a stronger 2.4% annualized last quarter. Overall, we’re still expecting economic growth to slow further in the near-term, but that slowdown appears to be more modest than we had initially expected,” said Capital Economics senior U.S. economist Michael Pearce.
Market Reaction
Gold has faced selling pressure following reports of moderate GDP growth, a rebound in durable goods orders, and a major drop in jobless claims. Jobless claims are now back near historically low levels after hitting a 5-month high the week before last. With risk-on sentiment prominent in today’s market, spot gold last traded at $1,455.98/oz, down -0.26% with a high of $1,462.83/oz and a low of $1,453.50/oz.
Gold Price Chart
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