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Gold Price Preview: June 3 - June 7

By Ryan Page -

Gold traders have a reason to be excited for the first time in a while. Gold has had one of its biggest rallies of the year up over $50 in 3 days of trading, close to a 3 standard deviation move. From a volatility perspective gold has caught a bid up 3% to 4%, shaking up the options market.

Equity traders have been tossed around with equities continuing to sell off from the peak at the beginning of May. Today’s day of gold trading has been a pure rip upwards with no sign of slowing down.

This gold move was further compounded by the comments made by James Bullard, a dovish member of the Fed. Bullard indicated that a drop-in rates could come sooner than expected. That announcement led to a bid in both gold and equities, later in the day equities sold off with gold holding strong, a further case for bull gold. Keep an eye on Fed announcements and employment data this week, disappointing data should give gold further reason to breakout.

US Economic Data to Watch

Tuesday, June 4th at 09:55am EDT // Fed Chair Powell speaks

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will discuss monetary policy on Tuesday. Earlier today James Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the Fed, came out saying that a rate cut may be warranted. After the Bullard statement, futures contracts are implying about 50 percent probability of at least one rate cut by Jan. 29. This makes Tuesdays comments by Fed Chair Powell one to watch.

Wednesday, June 5th at 08:15am EDT // ADP employment report (May)

[consensus +188k, last +275k]

Economists expect a 188k gain in ADP payroll employment. If we see any breakout numbers in ADP expect this to translate to surprises in Nonfarm Payroll as well. This data point helps give us some understanding of the health of the overall economy when it comes to the labor market.

Thursday, June 6th at 08:30am EDT //Nonfarm productivity Q4 final

[consensus +3.5%, last +3.6%]

Thursday, June 6th at 08:30am EDT // Initial Jobless claims, week ended June 1

 [consensus +215k, last +215k]

Nonfarm productivity data and Initial Jobless claims data will be coming Thursday. On mixed data expect there to be not much movement in equities or gold. On weaker data the expectation would be a further equity sell off and gold to continue its rally.

Friday, June 7th at 08:30am EDT // Nonfarm payroll employment (May)

[consensus +185k, last +263k]

Friday, June 7th at 08:30am EDT // Unemployment rate (May)

[consensus 3.6%, last 3.6%]

Nonfarm payroll surprises should follow ADP employment surprises so keep an eye on Tuesday’s ADP employment data. Unemployment is expected to remain steady for the month of May. Surprises in these employment figures most likely will be further catalyst for this gold rally and a sign that our economy is weakening. Disappointing employment data will also give the Fed more reason to lower rates and more reason for gold to continue its rally.

Good luck trading this week, this will be one you shouldn’t miss.

Ryan Page

Ryan Page

Ryan Page has worked for 3 years as a commodities derivative’s trader. He has been building models to analyze global macro data and evaluate risk for more than 5 years.

Ryan has been trading since he was 14 years old. He enjoys playing mid to high stakes poker, with immense experience studying and applying game theory.

Gold Price Chart