GoldPrice.

Good morning, traders; Welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news and headlines likely to have the biggest impact the price of gold this week and beyond, as well as market prices for silver, the US Dollar, and other key correlated assets.

The new week of trading is starting very much in a similar mood to the last one, with gold prices trading just below $1760/oz in spot markets while investors in general seem cautiously optimistic—yet uneasy—ahead of a week that will show us updated inflation statistics and provide the markets with new input from Fed officials regarding whether indications of a stumbling labor market recovery might affect the planned monetary policy path.

For now, let’s take a look at the rest of the calendar ahead.

US Economic Data to Watch

Wednesday, October 13 at 830am EDT // CPI Inflation (Sep)

[(core CPI) consensus est.: +4.1% YoY // prev.: +4.1%]

[(headline CPI) consensus est.: +5.3% YoY // prev.: +5.3%]

While the letdown in last week’s Jobs Report might be turning the thoughts of Fed officials towards postponing plans to start tapering asset purchases next month (a pause that would, most likely, be a short- to medium-term boon for gold prices,) this week’s inflation data might pull the FOMC harder towards action. Stubborn issues in the supply chain of a re-opening global economy threaten still to keep relatively high rates inflation looking more “persistent,” even if the inflationary pressures of extreme monetary support really are proving to be a “transitory” as the Fed predicted. Some categories of the CPI report that declined in recent months may have been re-inflated by continuing logistical hang-ups, and the lull in some travel or service categories created by the delta variant’s summer-surge might be waning as well. Should the CPI numbers print as-expected or higher this week, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see gold prices fall (as a reaction to more pressure on the Fed to taper) alongside worried equity markets, while the US Dollar would likely strengthen.

Wednesday. October 13 at 2pm EDT // FOMC Meeting Minutes

The main goal of analysts and financial commentators parsing the most recent discussion minutes and notes from the FOMC will be to determine how confident the committee was in September about the next meeting (in November) being the appropriate time to start withdrawing monetary support for the US economic recovery; More specifically, whether or not the second-consecutive miss in job growth might be enough to stall the taper. As we’ll say repeatedly over the coming weeks: Should investors get the impression that the Fed will hold back, gold prices are likely to rise; shifts in the opposite direction will be more bearish for the yellow metal.

Thursday, October 14 at 830am EDT // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus est.: +320K // prev.: +326K]

Regardless of how solid of a tie there may be between any individual data point in Initial Jobless Claims and the trend of the US labor market, expect greater attention—or at least sensitivity—paid to these weekly numbers between now and the next Fed meeting. Any volatility in gold price is likely to be brief, but traders should be prepared for it, still.

Friday, October 15 at 830am EDT // Retail Sales (Sep)

[consensus est.: -0.2% MoM // prev.: +0.7%]

September’s NFP slip put to rest the idea that the Federal government’s enhanced unemployment insurance (and similar support mechanisms) was having a meaningful impact on the US labor market; now investors and analysts will want to see how much of an effect (if any) those inputs had on retail spending. As it stands, the expectation is that the complete withdrawal of added assistance will be enough of a drag on Retail Sales to see them decline month-over-month. That wouldn’t be overly concerning, as long as the drop is within touching distance of the consensus. But a steeper decline might be another factor that could spook the Fed out of tapering as soon or as aggressively as planned, and could provide a moderate tailwind for gold prices at the end of the week.

FedSpeak this Week

The docket of public appearances by FOMC officials is a busy one this week and, although it’s difficult to predict who will say what at the right time to grab markets’ imagination, there will be a lot of attention on these officials’ comments where they pertain to the Fed’s plan to start the taper next month (or not,) and the committee’s impression of last week’s ugly labor market reveal.

Tuesday: Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida (FOMC voter) (1115am EDT); Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (1230pm)

Wednesday: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (FOMC voter) (8pm)

Thursday: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) (835am); Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter) (1pm); Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) (6pm)

Friday: St. Louis President Bullard (1145am); New York Fed President John Williams (FOMC voter) (1220pm)

And that’s how the week lays out ahead of us, traders. As always, I wish you all the very best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and I’ll look forward to seeing you all back here on Friday for our market-week wrap up.