Happy Monday gold traders. The last week of trading was an exciting one. Gold rallied almost $70 from about $1280 to about $1350 in 7 days of trading.
[Chart above is AUG gold futures]
Volume was elevated throughout the week as this was the biggest 7 day move of the year. Gold started to lose steam late in Fridays session and the selloff continued on Sunday’s futures open. Gold has held steady around $1330 during the early parts of todays trading. More price action should come as we expect Trump put more pressure on China. Trump threatened to impose new tariffs if President Xi does not come to the G20 summit later this month. More tariffs should give gold a reason to continue its rally. Further cut indications from the Fed should also give gold a reason to catch a bid.
US Economic Data to Watch
Monday, June 10th at 10:00am EDT // JOLTS Job Openings (April)
[consensus +7496k, last +7488k]
Tuesday, June 11th at 08:30am EDT // PPI (May)
[PPI MoM, consensus 0.1%, last 0.2%]
[Core PPI MoM, consensus 0.2%, last 0.1%]
[PPI YoY, consensus 2%, last 2.2%]
[Core PPI YoY, consensus 2.3%, last 2.4%]
Estimates for headline PPI are 0.1% displaying relatively firm core prices for the US economy. Estimates for Core PPI, which exclude food and energy, are 0.2%. If the PPI data meets expectations it would be a sign that the US economy is still holding on to its strength.
Wednesday, June 12th at 08:30am EDT // CPI (May)
[CPI MoM, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%]
[Core CPI MoM, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%]
[CPI YoY, consensus +1.9%, last +2.0%]
[Core CPI YoY, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%]
Estimates for CPI are not expecting any meaningful impact from the tariffs. China tariffs are expected to impact the CPI reports for June and July. This forecast reflects a stagnant reading in the apparel category and a slight decrease in shelter inflation after two previously strong readings for shelter inflation.
Thursday, June 13th at 08:30am EDT // Jobless claims
[Initial Jobless claims (week ended June 8) consensus 215k, last 218k]
[Continuing Jobless Claims (week ended June 1) consensus 1.675M, last 1.682M]
Jobless claim reports in recent weeks show that claims have been low. Not much has changed in the job market leading to a low consensus for this next report.
Friday, June 14th at 08:30am EDT // Retail Sales MoM (May)
[Retail Sales consensus +0.6%, last -0.2%]
[Core Retail Sales consensus +0.4%, last flat]
Estimates for May’s Retail Sales reflect a nice bounce back from April’s disappointing 0.2% drop. This bump is reflective of strong auto sales and a rise in gasoline prices.
Good luck trading this week.