Ryan Page
Ryan Page has worked for 3 years as a commodities derivative’s trader. He has been building models to analyze global macro data and evaluate risk for more than 5 years.
Ryan has been trading since he was 14 years old. He enjoys playing mid to high stakes poker, with immense experience studying and applying game theory.
Pending Home Sales Drop 1% in February After Big Gains in January
Pending home sales dropped 1% in February, declining 4.9% year over year. The pending home sales index dropped to 101.9 in February, down from January’s figure of 103.2. Housing activity varies region to region with the South and West showing increases in contract signings while the Northeast and Midwest have shown declines.
Fed Preview: Forward Guidance in Focus
In January the Federal Reserve took a dovish outlook when they signaled for a pause in rate hikes. Since January’s meeting we have seen a mix between positive and negative economic data. Given the mixed data, analysts expect that the Fed will be cautious moving forward. The Fed is expected to revise its dot plot for 2019 from 1 to 2 hikes down to 1 hike during the March meeting.
U.S. New Home Sales Fall in January Amid Falling Mortgage Rates
January’s new home sales report missed substantially coming in at a 6.9 percent decline vs .6 percent expected. This report continues the decline from the one-year high that we saw in November of 2018. Investment in homebuilding declined by .2 percent in 2018, marking the weakest performance since 2010. New home inventory is also on the rise with 6.6 months of new home inventory.
Disappointing US Job Data Fuels Gold to Make Another Run at $1300
Hiring slowed to crawl in February as employers added just 20,000 jobs vs the 180,000 expected. Unemployment dropped to 3.8% as government employees returned to work. Urban areas across the country continue to grow at a steady pace while rural areas have lagged. Gold breaks dollar correlation following the jobs report, a sign of strength for gold bulls.
Down Week for Gold Continues After ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Data
February’s ISM Non-Manufacturing report came in at 59.7 percent vs 57.4 expected, signifying strong continued growth in the US economy. This positive data point came after Friday’s mostly negative ISM Manufacturing report which dropped 2.4 percent to 54.2 percent.
Fed Meeting Preview: Balance Sheet Comes Into Question
Analysts expect that the FOMC is almost certainly going to remain on hold for this week’s meeting, as they will most likely reiterate previous comments about data dependence and patience when it comes to further rate hikes. The balance sheet will be the big focal point for Wednesday’s meeting, however not much is expected in terms of formal changes to the balance sheet policy.
has been the number 1 site for live gold and silver price charts in every national currency in the world.